The Credibility of
Government Policies

Conference in Honor of Guillermo Calvo
February 22, 23, 24

Virtual Registration

In 1978 Guillermo Calvo published the paper “On the Time Consistency of Optimal Policy in a Monetary Economy”. This paper shows how a conflict between the interests of the current government with those of a future government, both of which share the same objective of maximizing social welfare, gives rise to a credibility problem. This seminal paper kickstarted a broad research agenda, which includes, for example, the problem of inflation stabilization, the unintended consequences of non-credible policies, balance of payments crises, sovereign debt crises, and the design of sustainable public debt management strategies. This conference will celebrate the “time consistency” paper´s 45th anniversary by gathering state-of-the-art research on the topic and bringing together academic researchers and policymakers who have to make decisions in environments without commitment. 

Organizers. Andy Neumeyer (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella) and Martín Uribe (Columbia University)

Scientific Committee. Mauricio Cárdenas (Columbia University), María Victoria Murillo (Columbia University), Andy Neumeyer (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella), Paolo Pesenti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), Martín Uribe (Columbia University), and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé (Columbia University)


Program Download


Wednesday, February 22, 2023, New York City

Venue: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (33 Liberty Street, Auditorium, 12th Floor)


3:00 - 4:00

Invited Lecture
Michael Woodford, Columbia University
Chair: Paolo Pesenti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

4:00 - 5:00

Panel Discussion
"Monetary Tightening, Inflation, and Debt Sustainability"
Chair: Patricia Mosser, Columbia University
Panelists:
Richard Clarida, Columbia University
Federick Mishkin, Columbia University
Francesco Giavazzi, Universitá Bocconi
Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, International Monetary Fund

5:00 - 5:30

Coffee break

5:30 - 6:30

Fireside Chat on Taming Inflation
Chair: Darrell Duffie, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University
Speakers:
Jacob Frenkel, Group of Thirty (G30)
Mervyn King, London School of Economics, Emeritus
John C. Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

6:30 - 8:00

Reception and Cocktail


Thursday, February 23, 2023, New York City

Venue: Columbia University (420 West 118th Street, International Affairs Building, Room 1501)

8:15 - 8:45

Registration and breakfast

8:45 - 9:00

Welcome
Keren Yarhi-Milo, Columbia University
Martin Uribe, Columbia University

9:00 - 10:00

Chair: José Scheinkman, Columbia University
Keynote address
"Fiscal and Monetary Policy when Government Liabilities Carry a Liquidity Premium"
Christopher Sims, Princeton University, Emeritus

10:00 - 10:30

Coffee break

10:30 - 11:30

Chair: Alejandro Izquierdo, Inter-American Development Bank
"Price Setting and Strategic Complementarities"
Fernando Alvarez, University of Chicago, Francesco Lippi, Luiss University, and Takis
Souganidis, University of Chicago
Discussant: Jennifer La’O, Columbia University

11:30 - 12:30

Chair: Liliana Rojas-Suárez, Center for Global Development
"Expectations and the Rate of Inflation"
Iván Werning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Discussant: Andy Neumeyer, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella

12:30 - 2:30 

Lunch
Chair: Jan ¦vejnar, Columbia University
Luncheon address: John B Taylor, Stanford University 

2:30 - 3:30

Chair: Cristina Arellano, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
"Gambling to Preserve Price (and Fiscal) Stability"
Giancarlo Corsetti, European University Institute, and Bartosz Maćkowiak, European Central
Bank
Discussant: Javier Bianchi, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 

3:30 - 4:30

Chair: Andrew Powell, Inter-American Development Bank
"A Theory of Fiscal Responsibility and Irresponsibility"
Marina Halac, Yale University, and Pierre Yared, Columbia University
Discussant: Mark Aguiar, Princeton University 

4:30 - 5:00

Coffee break 

5:00 - 6:00

Panel Discussion
"Managing External Shocks: Global Inflation Pressures, Supply Disruptions and Global 
Monetary Tightening"
Chair: Luis Felipe Céspedes, Banco Central de Chile
Panelists:
Andrés Velasco, London School of Economics
José Darío Uribe, Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas
Karnit Flug, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Ricardo Hausmann, Harvard Kennedy School

6:15 - 10:00

Reception followed by dinner (by invitation)

Friday, February 24, 2023, New York City

Venue: Columbia University (420 West 118th StreetInternational Affairs Building, Room 1501)
 

8:30 - 9:00

   Breakfast

9:00 - 10:00

Chair: Alan Taylor, University of California, Davis
Keynote address
"Among The Many Lessons on Credibility from Guillermo: From Inflation to Sudden Stops"
Carmen Reinhart, Harvard Kennedy School

10:00 - 11:00

Chair: Pablo Guidotti, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
"Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Emerging Economies"
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, University of Maryland, Pierre De Leo and Gita Gopinath, IMF
Discussant: Linda Goldberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

11:00 - 11:30

Coffee break

11:30 - 12:30

Panel Discussion
"Back to 2% Inflation?"
Chair: Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Columbia University
Panelists:
James Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Silvana Tenreyro, London School of Economics
Federico Sturzenegger, Universidad de San Andrés

12:30 - 2:00

Lunch
Chair: Miguel Kiguel, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Luncheon address: Maurice Obstfeld, University of California Berkeley

2:00 - 3:00

   Chair: Enrique Mendoza, University of Pennsylvania
   "Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk"
   Pablo Ottonello, University of Michigan, Javier Bianchi, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 
   and Ignacio Presno, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
   Discussant:  Laura Castillo-Martinez, Duke University

3:00 - 3:30

   Coffee break

3:30 - 4:30

Policy Panel
"Decision-making with Limited Credibility"
Chair: Sara Calvo, Columbia University
Panelists:
José Antonio Ocampo, Finance Minister, Republic of Colombia
Ilan Goldfajn, Inter American Development Bank
Ernesto Zedillo, Yale University

4:30 - 4:45

Final Remarks
Guillermo Calvo, Columbia University

Participants


Mark Aguiar

Walker Professor of Economics and International Finance, Princeton University

Fernando Alvarez

Inaugural Saieh Family Professor of Economics, University of Chicago

Cristina Arellano

Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Javier Bianchi

Monetary Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

James Bullard

President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Guillermo Calvo

Professor of Economics, International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, Emeritus

Sara Calvo

Adjunt Professor, Columbia University

Mauricio Cárdenas

Professor, Columbia University

Richard Clarida

C.Lowell Harriss Professor of Economics, Columbia University

Laura Castillo-Martínez

Assistant Professor, Duke University

Luis Felipe Céspedes

Board Member, Banco Central de Chile

Giancarlo Corsetti

Pierre Werner Chair and Professor of Economics, European University Institute

Darren Duffie

Adams Distinguished Professor, Stanford Graduate School of Business

Karnit Flug

Professor, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Francesco Giavazzi

Professor, Bocconi University

Jacob Frenkel

Chairman, Board of Trustees, Group of Thirty (G30)

Linda Goldberg

Financial Research Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Ilan Goldfajn

President, Inter-American Development Bank

  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

    Ver bio

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Professor, UC Berkeley Economic Counsellor and Head of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund

Pablo Guidotti

Professor, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella

Marina Halac

Professor, Yale University

Ricardo Hausmann

Rafik Hariri Professor, Harvard Kennedy School

Alejandro Izquierdo

Principal Research Technical Leader, Inter-American Development Bank

Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan

Neil Moskowitz Endowed Professor, University of Maryland

Miguel Kiguel

Professor, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella

Mervyn King

Emeritus Professor, London School of Economics

Jennifer La'O

Associate Professor, Columbia University

Enrique Mendoza

Professor, University of Pennsylvania

Federick Mishkin

Alfred Lerner Professor, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University

Patricia Mosser

Director, MPA, Economic Policy Management and Senior Research Scholar, Columbia University, SIPA

Andrés Neumeyer

Professor, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella

José Antonio Ocampo

Finance Minister, Republic of Colombia

Maurice Obstfeld

Class of 1958 Professor, University of California at Berkeley

Pablo Ottonello

Professor, University of Michigan

Paolo Pesenti

Director of Monetary Policy Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Andrew Powell

Principal Advisor, Inter-American Development Bank

Carmen Reinhart

Minos A. Zombanakis Profesor, Harvard Kennedy School

Liliana Rojas-Suárez

Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development

José Scheinkman

Charles and Lynn Zhang Professor, Columbia University

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé

Professor, Columbia University

Christopher Sims

John J.F. Sherrerd '52 University Professor, Princeton University

Federico Sturzenegger

Professor, Universidad de San Andrés & Harvard Kennedy School

Jan ¦vejnar

Berg Professor, University of Michigan

Alan Taylor

C. Bryan Cameron Chair and Distinguished Professor, University of California, Davis

John B. Taylor

Mary and Robert Raymond Professor, Stanford University and Senior Fellow, Stanford Hoover Institution

Silvana Tenreyro

Professor, London School of Economics

Martín Uribe

Professor, Columbia University

José Darío Uribe

Executive President, Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas

Andrés Velasco

Professor and Dean of the School of Pubic Policy, London School of Economics

Ivan Werning

Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

John C. Williams

President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Michael Woodford

John Bates Clark Professor, Columbia University

Keren Yarhi-Milo

Dean and the School of International and Public Affairs and Adlai E. Stevenson Professor, Columbia University

Ernesto Zedillo

Frederick Iseman ’74 Director of the Program for the Study of Globalization and Professor, Yale University

Sponsors


This conference is sponsored by the Program for Economic Research (PER) at Columbia University, the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB),the Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISERP) at Columbia University, the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) at Columbia University, the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Institute of Latin American Studies (ILAS), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT).

Camila Dolabjian

Periodista de Economía en La Nación. Es politóloga y magister en periodismo (UTDT). Fue becaria de la Colorado State University y del programa estadounidense Semester at Sea.