Exchange Rate Expectations Report
Reports are only available in Spanish.
The last report shows that the expectations of appreciation of CER in terms of dollars are reducing. The reduction is larger for the medium term.
Thouhg by the end of September the market was slightly revalued the expected trajectory of CER in relation to the US dollar, the current measure is not different to that of August, while in the long term a CER weaker than before the crisis is expected.
After the deteriorations of the international context, the performance of argentine bonds is different form that of other emerging assets. The CER/us$ exchange rate appreciation expectations is lower in th short term, even though it remains high in the long term.
The market expects the value of dolar in terms of indexed pesos to fall by 5.7% in 2007 and by 3.9% in 2008, which is below the decrease foreseen by macroeconomic anlalysts consulted by REM (BCRA). This accounts for certain heterogeinity in expectations, which could be driven by the uncertainity over the calculation of CER.
For previous reports, please see Spanish version