Seminario "Information Frictions, Reputation, and Sovereign Spreads"

Miércoles 1/12, 17h

Presentado por Juan Morelli

Paper abstract

We formulate a reputational model in which the type of government is time varying and private information. Agents adjust their beliefs about the government's type (i.e., reputation) using noisy signals about its policies. We consider a debt repayment setting in which reputation influences the market's perceived probability of default, affecting sovereign spreads. We focus on the 2007-12 Argentine episode of inflation misreport to quantify how markets price reputation. We find that the misreports significantly increased Argentina's sovereign spreads. We use those estimates to discipline our model and show that reputation can have long-lasting effects on a government's borrowing costs.

*Jointly written with Matias Moretti

Juan Morelli

Ph.D. in Economics, NYU Stern. Economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. His  research fields are Macro-Finance and International Macroeconomics.

Zoom Meeting https://utdt.zoom.us/j/97913645191

Lugar: Zoom Meeting
Contacto: Cecilia Lafuente