Seminario de Negocios 2016El propósito del seminario es convertirse en el lugar donde presentar nuevas investigaciones así como también ser un foro para aumentar el conocimiento mutuo entre los miembros del profesorado. Planeamos 1 hora de exposición, seguido por 30 minutos de preguntas y de una discusión más informal.
Jueves 3 de Noviembre, 13h | Sala Principal
Juan José Cruces
Argentina’s residential real estate sector: a magnet for savings amidst mistrust in traditional investment vehicles
In a context in which investors have scant confidence in traditional financial savings instruments (e.g. domestic currency, bank deposits, government bonds, and stocks) Argentina’s real estate sector appears as one of the very few options that have earned their trust over the last 40 years. As a result, Argentine investors have massively channeled their savings to the urban residential real estate sector since the 2002 crisis. This paper measures the flow of funds into this sector for the city of Buenos Aires since 1992 and compares it to that in traditional savings instruments. For each dollar that went into the city’s real estate from 1992 until 2000, about six dollars went into deposits in the national banking system. From 2003 until 2012, for each dollar that went into real estate, only 99 cents went to bank deposits. The 2010 census reports a vacancy rate of 24% for the city, which would indicate that these massive investments are sitting idle. We use a micro data set of individual house electricity consumption and find that this is not the case. Vacancy rates in Buenos Aires are about 6%, much in line with international standards. The market’s reaction to the increased supply, however, has been a dramatic reduction of real rental values and rental yields. At the end of the sample, investments in real estate yield about 1.5% per annum, less than the US Treasury bond rate. We conclude by estimating the welfare loss from allocating society’s scarce capital to such a low-return activity. We interpret this figure as a lower bound of the flow cost of mistrust in traditional savings instruments.
Jueves 13 de octubre, 13h | Sala Principal
INVESTING IN THE BETA SPACE
The beta space is a powerful way to map the investment strategies of semi-diversified investors. Three metrics define the beta space: regular or exogenous betas (x-βs), linked to macroeconomic cycles; endogenous betas (n-βs), related to innovation hazards; and a combination of the two—the total betas (t-βs). The beta space is the first to endow unsystematic risk with measurable entity; it debunks the myth that innovation entails high exogenous betas; and it suggests a simpler definition of style investing: growth investors tend to favor industries with large t-βs, whereas value investors do the opposite.______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Martes 13 de septiembre, 13h | Sala Principal
STRATEGIC MEDIA SELECTION DURING ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS: CHOICE BETWEEN ASYNCHRONOUS AND SIMULTANEOUS MEDIA USAGE
Recessions lead to decreased disposable income and the resulting consumer spending cuts require marketers to strategically allocate their limited advertising budgets. Although research has shown that proactive and targeted campaigns by firms are more effective than decreased marketing efforts during economic downturns, changes in the influence of individual media on consumer purchases are largely unexplored. Today’s consumers are exposed to ‘simultaneous media’, effects of which could be different from ‘asynchronous media’. Using survey data from the US in the clothing category during the 2008 economic recession, we estimate the impacts of advertising media on purchase intentions. We analyze the changes in media influences across three critical periods – pre-recession, during recession and post-recession, to understand the evolution in behavioral patterns. We find that ‘simultaneous’ media usage during economic downturns has positive influence on purchases, while during stable periods, ‘asynchronous’ media usage is effective. We also find that all media synergies are not positive, as the effects of some media lose prominence while others become obsolete thus providing evidence of complementarity and substitutability across advertising mediums. Insights from this research can help marketers to allocate their budgets efficiently during recessions and identify relevant media synergies for consumer targeting.
Key words: Advertising Effectiveness, Media Synergy, Economic Recessions, Targeted Advertising, Simultaneous Media Usage.
Miércoles 7 de septiembre, 13h | Sala Principal
PLATAFORMAS ONLINE: LA INFLUENCIA SOCIAL Y SU IMPACTO EN DIFERENTES MECANISMOS PARA RANKEAR PRODUCTOS.
Cada vez más gente se ve influenciada por la opinión de los demás a la hora de elegir qué producto comprar, qué servicio adquirir o qué película ver. Esto se debe, en gran parte, a la existencia de sitios web que capturan la popularidad y el puntaje de evaluación de cada producto (película, servicio, etc) por parte de miles y a veces millones de personas. Como consecuencia de esta influencia social existe un aumento de la incerteza (a priori) sobre cuáles serán los productos más populares.
En este trabajo estudiamos la dinámica del modelo de una plataforma online cuyos consumidores pueden probar los productos y luego comprarlos si así lo desean. En este modelo los consumidores están influenciados por el atractivo inherente de cada producto, su popularidad hasta el momento, y su visibilidad en la plataforma (posición en el ranking). Examinamos las consecuencias de rankear los productos de diferentes maneras y los comparamos en términos de la cantidad de ventas totales, la impredecibilidad, la complejidad computacional y la convergencia a largo plazo. Los resultados muestran que la clásica estrategia de rankear los productos por popularidad no es la mejor.
Miércoles 24 de agosto, 11h | Sala Principal
Javier Palacios Fenech
THE DIVE AND DISRUPTION OF SUCCESSFUL CURRENT PRODUCTS: MEASURES, GLOBAL PATTERNS, AND PREDICTIVE MODEL
This study examines the diffusion of pairs of substitute products (current versus new) in five categories across 86 countries between 1977 and 2011. The study finds that current products reach a peak at about 56% of market penetration. Subsequently, they suffer a dramatic decrease in penetration of 286%, which we call the dive. A dive occurs in 96% of current products in five categories across 86 countries between 1977 and 2011. On average, the time from takeoff of new product to a peak in penetration of the current product is 6.6 years and to the dive of the current product is 8.4 years. The total time-to-dive includes a hidden discontinuance period (10.4 years), from the introduction of the new product to the peak of the current product, plus an overt time-to-dive (1.8 years), from the peak to the dive of the current product. The hidden discontinuance period and the overt time-to-dive are shorter, and the dive is steeper in emerging markets than in developed ones. A discrete-time hazard model shows that the introduction of the new product, prior penetration of the current product, the population density of the country, and prior dives in other countries predict intercountry the hazard of a peak. Subsequently, takeoff of the new product, relative percentage growth in penetration of the current product prior to a peak, the length of the hidden discontinuance period, and prior dives in other countries predict the hazard of a dive. The models can predict the occurrence of a peak with true positive rate of 62% and a true negative rate of 87%, and a dive with a true positive rate of 82% and a true negative rate of 61%.
Jueves 2 de junio, 13h | Lounge 1
Gustavo Vulcano (UTDT)
A PARTIAL ORDER-BASED MODEL TO ESTIMATE INDIVIDUAL PREFERENCES USING PANEL DATA
In retail operations, customer choices may be affected by stockout and promotion events. Given panel data with the transaction history of customers, and product availability and promotion data, our goal is to predict future individual purchases.
We use a general nonparametric framework in which we represent customers by partial orders of preferences. In each store visit, each customer samples a full preference list of the products consistent with her partial order, forms a consideration set, and then chooses to purchase the most preferred product among the considered ones. Our approach involves: a) defining behavioral models to build consideration sets as subsets of the products on offer, b) proposing a clustering algorithm for determining customer segments, and c) deriving marginal distributions for partial preferences under the multinomial logit and the Mallows models. Numerical experiments on real-world panel data show that our approach allows more accurate, fine-grained predictions for individual purchase behavior compared to state-of-the-art alternative methods.
Joint with S. Jagabathula (NYU).
Jueves 14 de abril, 13:00hs | Sala Principal
Mauricio Mittelman (UTDT)
Oftentimes, consumers benefit from a product only if they actually use it (e.g., a set of weights for exercising). When consumers contemplate the purchase of such a product, they should consider how much they expect to use it. However, the present research suggests they often fail to do so. In a series of four studies, we provide empirical evidence of usage neglect. In the first study, we show that real shoppers do not spontaneously consider how much they expect to use the product they contemplate purchasing. In the following three studies, we employ a number of priming manipulations to show that as usage becomes more accessible in consumers’ minds, they change their behavior accordingly—they choose better versions of a product that they expect to use frequently, they refrain from paying more for a product feature that they are unlikely to use, and they are willing to pay more or less for a product depending on their usage habits. We discuss implications of our findings and suggest directions for future research.